Announced yesterday, the ADP National Employment report indicated that private sector jobs increased by 42,000 in October, rebounding from the -29,000 figure the previous month. In the month, the transportation & utilities industry, education & health industry; and financial activities industry all saw job increases while the information industry, professional & business services industry, and leisure & hospitality industry all saw job decreases.
Meanwhile, while the normal weekly initial claims data release has been impacted by the government shutdown, the states that have published figures indicate the total is likely still in the low 200,000’s in previous weeks. This amount remains relatively healthy, well below the 300k level considered by many to be the top threshold for a healthy labor market. It remains to be seen if recent layoff announcements from companies such as Target, Starbucks, and Amazon will affect the data in the near future.
Overall, despite weakening payroll data throughout 2025, initial claims continue to show some stability in the labor market. Even though private payrolls increased only slightly in October, it was a nice rebound from the negative figure in the previous month. As the government shutdown continues, providing limited economic data, it could prove difficult for the Federal Reserve to gain certainty on their economic outlook. As a result, how the Fed interprets these limited data points for their policy will be key for the economy and markets in the coming weeks.
In all, the yield on the 10-year US treasury ticks lower this morning and equity futures are higher as we head into the market open.
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