In this morning’s data, Initial Jobless Claims were 209,000 for the week ending November 18th, less than expected and 24k lower than the revised figure from the previous week. In addition, Continuing Claims were 1,840,000 for the week ending November 11th, also less than expected and less than the previous week’s revised figure.
Overall, initial and continuing claims were lower than expected, reversing a trend higher for both measures in recent weeks. As a real-time view into the dynamics of the labor market, these levels indicate a resilient labor market from earlier in the year could persist. Meanwhile, consumers have become more selective in their purchases, as noted in recent earnings reports from retailers, suggesting stretched budgets are starting to feed into people’s decision making. How much this affects the holiday shopping season will be notable in the coming weeks. Farther out, the Federal Reserve could be inclined to keep rates higher for longer to ensure inflation moves even lower and closer to their targets, especially with a labor market remaining resilient. How well earnings hold up through this process will be key for the markets in the months ahead.
In all, the yield on the 10-year US treasury ticks higher and equity futures are also higher as we head into the market open. Have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving!
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