In this morning’s data, Initial Jobless Claims were 223,000 for the week ending Mar 15th, just slightly below expectations and was 2,000 more than the revised figure from the previous week. In addition, Continuing Claims were 1,892,000 for the week ending Mar 8th, higher than expected, and 33,000 more than the previous week’s revised figure.
For many weeks, initial claims have stayed well below 300,000 which is largely considered the high threshold for initial claims in a healthy economic environment. Continuing claims were higher than expected and higher than the previous week, denoting it is becoming more difficult for individuals to find jobs if they are out of work. Each of these measures note that the labor market appears stable, but suggest it is softer than it was in previous months.
Overall, the labor market looks intact per these real time data points coupled with the recent payroll report. The Federal Reserve chose to hold rates steady at this week’s policy meeting, while reducing the runoff on their balance sheet. Uncertainty lingers from proposed and shifting tariff policy as well as from inflation measures remaining above their targets. How well the labor market and consumers hold up amidst this uncertainty will be key factors for the economy and markets in the coming weeks.
In all, the yield on the 10-year US treasury ticks lower overall this morning and equity futures are also lower as we head into the market open.
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