Announced this morning, Initial Jobless Claims were 191,000 for the holiday shortened week ending November 29th, which is less than expected and -27,000 less than the revised amount from the previous week. In addition, Continuing Claims were 1,939,000 for the week ending November 22nd, slightly less than expected, and -4,000 less than the previous week’s figure.
Initial Jobless were less than expected and reached the lowest weekly amount since 2022. Initial claims remain at a healthy quantity that is well below the 300,000 level that many consider to be the top threshold for a functioning labor market. Meanwhile, continuing claims ticked slightly lower but are about 100,000 more than they were at the start of the year.
This week’s report from ADP suggests that small businesses are letting workers go; however, initial claims have not ticked up as a result. At the same time, it remains difficult for individuals to find work, given the rise in continuing claims throughout the year. Lower income individuals face greater headwinds due to labor market weakening and due to affordability as tariffs continue to roll through the supply chain, impacting prices. Given these dynamics and the lack of government data from the recent shutdown, the Federal Reserve will have plenty to contemplate at next week’s meeting as they decide on whether to continue with the path of interest rate reductions.
In all, the yield on the 10-year US treasury ticks higher this morning and equity futures are mixed as we head into the market open.
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