Never Say Never

Mike Jones

Mike Jones

Investment Insights

Mike Jones

I have heard it said that if you live long enough you will see it all. While that may not be wholly true, there is an element of truth to it.

If anyone had told me back in the high interest rate period of the 1980’s that the world would experience the low rates we’re seeing today, I would have staked my career on quite the opposite. But crazy things happen.

Looking back on a 32 year career, I can recall “black Monday,” the “dot com saga,” “9-11,” and the “global financial crisis” as events that significantly altered the financial landscape.

The most current phenomenon that will go down in financial history as highly significant and unforeseen is low to “negative” interest rates. Like the other significant events or eras listed above, that which we are experiencing now was not on the radar of the mainstream financial service industry.

Looking back, I and many others can tell you how we got to this point, but don’t trust anyone who tells you that they saw it coming. They didn’t.

Because the central bankers around the world see avoiding another worldwide “Great Depression” as their number one purpose in existing, they continue to use every tool in their toolbox to attempt to stimulate the economies of the world. This had led to lowering of interest rates, expansion of central bank balance sheets, as well as asset purchases (primarily bonds) which were designed to lower and lower interest rates.

And guess what? It has worked. We have somehow avoided global recession since 2009.

Of course the question must be asked, “At what cost?” Unfortunately we do not know the answer to that one at this time.

What we do know is that this absolute desire to avoid not just a depression but even a recession at all cost is having significant repercussions to the savers of the world.

Competing with these central banks for fixed income assets are savers. As you can see below, a long term look at interest rates on the 10 year US Government Bond and the 30 Year Mortgage Rate demonstrates just how low these interest rates have gone.

Long-Term Look at the 10-Year Note Yield

A log-scale snapshot of the 10-year yield offers a more accurate view of the relative change over time. Here is a long look since 1965:

never say never - 10 year treasury yield


The 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage



Shocking, isn’t it? As investors we must ask where do we go from here? Answer: No one knows.

Never say rates can’t go lower. It has also been proven unwise to say higher rates are just around the corner.

My answer has been to look for the highest possible diversified yet prudent yield and monitor things. I believe that being flexible and modestly dynamic will allow an income investor to navigate these most unusual of times best.

Byron R. Moore, CFP® is Managing Director / Planning Group of Argent Advisors, Inc. Mike Jones is Managing Director / Investment Group of Argent Advisors, Inc. Write to either at 500 East Reynolds Drive, Ruston, LA 71270 or call (318) 251-5800. This newsletter is available via email on a free subscription basis. You can subscribe by clicking here. Direct any questions, comments or suggestions to Byron Moore at or to Mike Jones at
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by Argent Advisors, Inc.), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this newsletter will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. The opinions of any single advisor do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Argent Advisors, Inc. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this newsletter serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from Argent Advisors, Inc.. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing.
Argent Advisors, Inc. is a registered investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Argent Advisors, Inc. is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the newsletter content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. Argent Advisors, Inc does not offer tax, legal or insurance advice. If you are a Argent Advisors, Inc. client, please remember to contact Argent Advisors, Inc., in writing, if there are any changes in your personal/financial situation or investment objectives for the purpose of reviewing/evaluating/revising our previous recommendations and/or services. A copy of the Argent Advisors, Inc.’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available upon request.


Argent Financial Group

Celebrating its 30th anniversary in 2020, Argent Financial Group (Argent) is a leading, independent, fiduciary wealth management firm. Responsible for more than $30 billion in client assets, Argent provides individuals, families, businesses and institutions with a broad range of wealth management services, including trust and estate administration, investment management, ESOPs, retirement plan consulting, funeral and cemetery trusts, charitable organization administration, oil and gas (mineral) management and other unique financial services. Headquartered in Ruston, Louisiana, Argent was formed in 1990 and traces its roots back to 1930.

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