In this morning’s data, Initial Jobless Claims were 197,000 for the week ending September 19th, less than expected and a slight decrease of -1,000 from the previous week’s revised figure. Continuing Claims were 1,719,000 for the week ending September 12th, also less than expected, and an increase of just 2,000 from the previous week’s revised figure.
Overall, initial claims remain low and well below the 300k level that many consider as the top threshold for a healthy labor market. The weekly measure has averaged about 210k for the past 5 months. In addition, continuing claims stay near the lowest level over that same 5-month period. While these data suggest the labor market is healthy, individuals may not be filing claims as readily as before considering employment options available in ridesharing and delivery services which historically were not as readily available.
If individuals feel secure about their employment they tend to spend money, which has been seen in the rebound of retail sales data in the most recent month. As artificial intelligence (AI) models continue to evolve and become more engrained in the day-to-day company activities, the ability and skill of individuals to efficiently utilize AI will be a factor in labor productivity. In this environment, the strength of the labor market will be closely watched in the coming weeks as the Federal Reserve contemplates future interest rate increases to achieve price stability.
In all, the 10-year US Treasury yield is little changed this morning and equity futures are lower as we head into the market open.
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