Announced this morning, the economy added 115,000 in April, more than expected and the previous month was revised higher. Reviewing the individual categories, the Retail Trade industry, the Wholesale Trade industry, and the Health Care and Social Assistance industry were relatively strong, while the Information Services industry and Government jobs were relatively weak. The Unemployment Rate remained at 4.3%. Average Hourly Earnings increased 0.2% in April, less than expected, and grew 3.6% on an annual basis. The Labor Force Participation Rate was 61.8%, slightly less than expected, and Average Weekly Hours were 34.3, which is one tenth higher than the previous month.
Overall, a second month in a row with headline jobs increasing more than expected coupled with no change to the unemployment rate. Job increases in retail trade, wholesale trade and health care were offset by weakness in information services and government jobs. The unemployment rate has remained stable; however, wages and labor force participation were both a bit less than expected. Despite artificial intelligence (AI) gaining some traction in the economy, average weekly hours ticked slightly higher, an indication that we are in the initial stages of AI permeating through the economy.
The labor market continues to hold steady amidst higher oil prices as the conflict with Iran continues. Higher tax refunds and stimulus from the OBBBA are helping consumers offset some of the higher gasoline costs. If individuals are working, they tend to spend money in the economy. With strong quarterly earnings so far this earnings season, the length of time that oil prices remain elevated will be a key for consumers and the economy in the weeks ahead.
In all, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury is little-changed this morning and equity markets are higher in today’s trading.
This material is intended to be for informational purposes only and is intended for current or prospective clients of Argent Trust Company. This information is obtained from sources believed to be reliable, and its accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Information does not constitute a recommendation of any investment strategy, is not intended as investment advice, and does not take into account all the circumstances of each investor. Forward-looking assumptions are Argent Trust Company’s current estimates or expectations of future events or future results based on proprietary research and should not be construed as an estimate or promise of results that a portfolio may achieve. Actual results could differ materially from the results indicated by this information. Investments can go down as well as up. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.
