Announced this morning, Initial Jobless Claims were 222,000 for the week ending Apr 19th, as expected and 6,000 more than the revised figure from the previous week. In addition, Continuing Claims were 1,841,000 for the week ending Apr 12th, less than expected, and 37,000 less than the previous week’s revised figure.
Another reading of initial claims in the low 200k range, remaining well below the 300k level considered to be the top threshold for a healthy labor market. Initial claims have remained well below this threshold since late 2021. Meanwhile, continuing claims were less than expected and fell from the previous week. Continuing Claims are at the bottom end of the range they have been in since last September. These real-time measures do not indicate stress or concern for the labor market.
Overall, it remains to be seen when the uncertainty from tariff negotiations feeds broadly into economic data. While consumers appear nervous, considering the recent measures of consumer sentiment, that has not yet filtered into other areas of the economy. This dynamic as well as the direction and timing of tariff negotiations, Federal Reserve policy, and commentary from earnings reports will be key points to watch in the coming weeks.
In all, the yield on the 10-year US treasury ticks lower this morning and equity futures are mixed as we head into the market open.
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