In this morning’s data, Initial Jobless Claims were 211,000 for the week ending Dec 28th, less than expected and 9,000 less than the revised figure from the previous week. In addition, Continuing Claims were 1,844,000 for the week ending Dec 21st, also less than expected and 52,000 less than the previous week’s revised figure.
Initial claims were less than expected and dropped from the previous week. These levels suggest the labor market appears intact, as they have remained well below the 300,000 threshold that many consider as the high end for claims in a healthy economy. In addition, continuing claims were also less than expected and a sizeable amount less than the previous week. While in a similar range seen over the past few months, continuing claims have moved higher since 2022 suggesting some softening in the labor market over that time.
Overall, the labor market has softened but appears to be intact. However, recent inflation measures have remained sticky and above the Federal Reserve’s targets. How the Federal Reserve contemplates policy amidst this dynamic will be a key factor for the economy and markets as we start the new year.
In all, the yield on the 10-year US treasury initially ticks higher following the report and equity futures are higher as we head into the market open. Happy New Year!
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