Market Perspective- May 2024

Market Perspective- May 2024

Strength In Numbers The odds of the first-rate cut of 25 basis points (1/4%) are now 50%, and it has been pushed out until September. Core inflation readings declined from 3.8% to April’s 3.6%, the largest monthly decline since September 2023. Although 3.6% is still...

Market Perspective- May 2024

Strength In Numbers The odds of the first-rate cut of 25 basis points (1/4%) are now 50%, and it has been pushed out until September. Core inflation readings declined from 3.8% to April’s 3.6%, the largest monthly decline since September 2023. Although 3.6% is still...

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Post-FOMC Thoughts

Post-FOMC Thoughts

Today’s Decision The first FOMC meeting of 2024 came and went in a much less dramatic fashion than the last FOMC meeting of 2023. In a unanimous decision, the Fed Funds Rate was held steady at the range of 5.25 – 5.50%. The last 25bp rate hike took place in July of...

Market Update -January 2024

Market Update -January 2024

Fourth Quarter 2023 Investment Commentary What a difference a year makes. In 2022, high inflation and the Fed’s commitment to tame it led to sharply rising interest rates and negative returns for virtually all traditional asset classes. In 2023, much to the surprise...

The Morning View: January 5, 2024

The Morning View: January 5, 2024

Announced this morning, the economy added 216,000 jobs in December, higher than expected but last month’s figure was revised lower by 26,000.  The Health Care and Social Assistance industry, Leisure and Hospitality industry, and Government jobs were all relatively...

Investment Outlook – January 2024

Investment Outlook – January 2024

Should Auld Misgivings Be Forgot and Never Brought to Mind…? As we close the door on 2023, the mood in the markets seems to be one of optimism and good cheer. The S&P 500 is up for the year and long-term interest rates appear to be on the decline. This is in sharp...

The Morning View: January 5, 2024

The Morning View: December 28, 2023

Announced this morning, Initial Jobless Claims were 218,000 for the week ending December 23rd, higher than expected and 12,000 higher than the revised figure from the previous week.  In addition, Continuing Claims were 1,875,000 for the week ending December 16th, as...

The Morning View: January 5, 2024

The Morning View: December 22, 2023

In this morning’s data, the PCE Deflator decreased -0.1% in November, less than expected and was up 2.6% on an annual basis. The Core PCE Deflator, which excludes food and energy prices and is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, increased just 0.1% in November,...

Post-FOMC Thoughts

Post-FOMC Thoughts

The Interim From October 31st (just before the prior FOMC meeting) to today, there has been a tremendous rally in U.S. Treasuries. The yield on the 2-year note fell from 5.08% to 4.54% (earlier this month), and this morning it sat at 4.69%. The 10-year yield fell from...

The Morning View: January 5, 2024

The Morning View: December 12, 2023

Announced this morning, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased 0.1% in November, slightly higher than expected and grew 3.1% on an annual basis.  Monthly prices for Utility (Piped) Gas Service, up 2.8%, and Used Cars and Trucks, up 1.6%, were relatively strong while...

Market Update -January 2024

Market Update -December 2023

Monthly Market Update The S&P 500 snapped its three-month losing streak with a return of 9.1%. Foreign equity markets joined the rally with a similar 9% gain. The bond market had its best month since the 1980s—as the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index rose 4.5%....

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