Announced this morning, Initial Jobless Claims were 217,000 for the week ending June 19th, less than expected, and 4,000 less than the previous week. In addition, Continuing Claims were 1,955,000 for the week ending June 12th, slightly more than expected and 4,000 more than the previous week’s revised figure.
Initial claims, having increased in previous weeks have retreated back to levels seen earlier in 2025 and remain well below the 300k level considered as the top threshold for a healthy labor market, denoting stability. Meanwhile, continuing claims were slightly more than expected and are a bit elevated from levels earlier in the year.
Overall, these real time measures suggest the labor market is holding steady in the current environment. Considering the increase in continuing claims, companies appear a bit hesitant to hire workers given ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations. The interpretation of labor market data will be a key consideration for the Federal Reserve in their upcoming meeting. In addition, the timing and direction of monetary policy and ongoing earnings reports will be key for the markets in the coming weeks.
In all, the yield on the 10-year US treasury ticks higher and equity futures are mixed as we head into the market open.
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