In this morning’s data, Initial Jobless Claims were 221,000 for the week ending Nov 2nd, slightly less than expected and 3,000 more than the revised figure from the previous week. In addition, Continuing Claims were 1,892,000 for the week ending Oct 26th, above expectations and 39,000 more than the previous week’s revised figure.
Meanwhile, the latest measure of Nonfarm Labor Productivity shows an increase of 2.2% in the third quarter 2024, less than expected and the previous figure was revised lower. The latest measure of Unit Labor Costs shows an increase of 1.9% in the third quarter 2024, higher than expected and the previous figure was also revised higher.
Overall, initial claims were slightly less than expected while continuing claims moved higher. Initial claims are still in the low 200,000 range, suggesting stability. The move higher in continuing claims shows some individuals may still be trying to get back to work following the recent hurricanes.
Productivity measures were less than expected but have moved higher in recent months from depressed levels following the pandemic. With artificial intelligence beginning to have an impact in certain businesses, productivity could provide additional stabilization to labor market data in the months ahead. In addition, unit labor costs are above expectations hinting that companies may still be dealing with higher costs in the current environment.
All eyes will be on today’s interest rate decision and commentary from the Federal Reserve meeting as they contemplate policy amidst the election results and the most recent labor market data. In this morning’s markets, the yield on the 10-year US treasury ticks lower following the report and equity futures are higher as markets continue to digest the results of this week’s election.
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